As Pope Francis passed away in the early morning hours of Easter Monday the Vatican throne is once again vacant. His death could not come at a more turbulent time. The Catholic Church is headed for a schism. Conflict within that institution is nothing new of course, but at the current moment, its future path is rather uncertain. The two factions at hand are the “traditionalists” and the “liberal modernists”, and they both spiral down their echo chambers, losing contact with the other half of the church.
For the last twelve years the church was literally ripped apart. While Pope Francis would call it a ‘grave sin’ to turn away migrants, the most powerful catholic on earth JD Vance was part of the administration sending innocent people into the harshest prisons on earth in El Salvador. While Bergoglio spent much of his time in office trying to dilute Catholic dogma to make it more palatable for hostile masses, a reaction was quietly brewing within the most traditionalist factions—marked by a fervent rediscovery of the traditional Latin Mass.
The death of the pope will not solve the fundamental division in the institution. The Franciscans now have an LGBT Mission. The traditionalists have Church Militant, led by the ex-gay guru Michael Voris on their mission to fight Satan incarnate in all things liberal, who was revealed to seduce male interns at the catholic media company. …. Well, this head of traditionalist Hydra was cut off, but in its place, there are seven more, evermore radical organizations. The division is obvious, and I think a major schism is coming.
A Divided Conclave
It is still uncertain which faction will take charge after the next conclave. One can assume that the College of Cardinals has only gotten more woke and liberal as new members of the group were handpicked by the openly leftist pope. Still, there is quite a powerful African lobby in the Catholic Church, which is enthusiastic about reversing Church policy on whatever limited gay acceptance there has been in the last decade. The most prominent example here is cardinal Sarah, who mere hours after pope Francis’s death has already been anointed on Twitter by the most right-wing Catholics such as polish MEP Dominik Tarczyński to be the new pope. Cardinal Sarah is the most radically conservative figure in the Church hierarchy. His opposition to same-sex marriage extends far beyond internal ecclesiastical debates; he seeks to influence national legislation in African countries to outlaw same-sex unions and has even advocated for the criminalization of homosexuality. Thankfully, his chances of becoming pope remain low—for now, as of this Easter Monday, Polymarket gives him just a 4% probability.
Still the young clergy in the Catholic Church has shifted in the right-wing and dogmatic direction. One could very well see the verdict in the Sistine Chapel going either way. And the losing faction will likely make its exit out of the church. It is hard to imagine J.D. Vance and his accolades enduring another decade of sermons about embracing migrants and accepting homosexuality. Schism might be the only path forward.
Should One Care?
Most definitely. Vatican’s influence on national politics remains significant, shaping policy debates, guiding moral discourse, and affecting the alignment of political parties—particularly in countries with strong Catholic traditions. Who becomes the new vicar of Christ will be important for liberty worldwide. Church is very much involved in politics. One need only recall how Pope Francis openly criticized Javier Milei during Argentina’s presidential election. Although his intervention failed to sway enough of the Catholic electorate to block Milei’s victory, it was a clear attempt to prevent the rise of the country’s first libertarian president.
“This was perhaps never more evident than in his dealings with Javier Milei, who before taking office as Argentine president in late 2023 accused the pope of political interference and called him an “imbecile” who “promotes communism.” (…) “The state, today more important than ever, is called upon to exercise this central role of redistribution and social justice,” Francis said in a video issued shortly after he received Milei at the Vatican in 2024.
It’s worth examining the political implications for individual liberty through the lens of the two most extreme possibilities for the next pope.
Pope Paul VII
The status quo prevails. Beneath Michelangelo’s ceiling, the cardinals cast their ballots, and white smoke curls into the Roman sky. From the ancient rites emerges Paul VII—a torchbearer of Francis’s gentle revolution, carrying forward the liberal winds that have long stirred the halls of the Vatican.
Should the liberal faction prevail at the conclave, it could signal a shift in the Church’s long-standing doctrines on issues such as homosexuality, the ordination of women, and potentially in vitro fertilization. A pope who is accepting of LGBTQ+ individuals could serve as a powerful catalyst for social change, particularly in Eastern Europe and Africa, where same-sex marriage remains a contentious issue. On the African continent, dozens of countries still criminalize homosexuality, many of them—like Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Zambia, and Botswana—being predominantly Christian. If the Catholic Church were to accept gay marriage, it could spark a reversal of these horrid policies.
Similarly, there could be some potential benefits in terms of immigration policy. If the new pope were to embrace open borders, it might help counter the rapid erosion of freedom in that area. However, given Pope Francis’s limited impact on the issue, despite his clear stance, we shouldn’t expect dramatic changes. The United States, in particular, would likely remain largely unaffected, as American Catholics are already overwhelmingly aligned with the Democratic Party.
Free markets would undoubtedly suffer. For nearly a century, the Church has proven disastrously misguided on economic matters. One only needs to recall Ayn Rand’s confrontation with papal encyclicals on this very issue. She wrote back then:
“The encyclical is the manifesto of an impassioned hatred for capitalism; but its evil is much more profound and its target is more than mere politics. (…) It was not produced by the sense of life of any one person, but by the sense of life of an institution. The dominant chord of the encyclical’s sense of life is hatred for man’s mind—hence hatred for man—hence hatred for life and hatred for this earth—hence hatred for man’s enjoyment of his life on earth—and hence, as a last and least consequence, hatred for the only social system that makes all these values possible in practice: capitalism.”
The liberal pope would definitely continue the tradition of bashing capitalism at every possibility. Would it have much political consequence? Not necessarily.
Pope Benedict XVII
A hush falls over Rome as the cardinals gather beneath the Last Judgment. Behind the sealed doors of the Sistine Chapel, incense thickens the air. When the white smoke rises, it is not hope but omen. Benedict XVII emerges—a spectre of the old Church, eyes fixed on obedience, silence, and sin. The marble cracks underfoot as the Vatican turns back toward shadow, and the iron scent of dogma fills the air once more.
Latin is back in fashion. So is social conservatism. Father James Martin is banished from the Vatican and priesthood, while German bishops secede from the church. The era of ecumenism is over.
Were a traditionalist pope to ascend to power, the Church would likely pivot more decisively into the realm of right-wing cultural politics. The culture war would no longer be something the Church engages with from the sidelines or through carefully worded encyclicals—it would become a battleground where dogma is weaponized. Persecutions of homosexuals would gain a doctrinal moral license.
Migration, once regarded as a site of Christian compassion, could increasingly be recast as a threat to the sacred order. Charity would no longer be unconditional—it would come with ideological prerequisites, extended only to those who conform to the Church’s revived orthodoxy. The new pope might champion Ordo Amoris—rightly ordered love—much like J.D. Vance does: as a theological fig leaf for excluding migrants from a supposedly compassionate Christian worldview.
Free markets might also enjoy a resurgence in esteem, but one shouldn’t expect the new pope to be quoting Mises any time soon.
Papabile
What are the odds for each scenario? Here are some of the most likely candidates for the new pope, according to Polymarket:
1. Pietro Parolin
$29,855 Vol. — 39%
- Radicalism: Low
- Theological direction: Centrist, diplomatic, loyal to papal authority
- Likely Papal Name: Pius XIII
- Why? “Pius” evokes a sense of continuity, structure, and tradition. Parolin is a consummate Vatican insider — diplomatic, discreet, focused on geopolitical stability. This name would signal minimal disruption and a deep respect for historical precedent.
2. Luis Antonio Tagle
$176,751 Vol. — 34%
- Radicalism: Moderate
- Theological direction: Progressive, pastoral, emotionally expressive, evangelization-focused
- Likely Papal Name: John XXIV
- Why? He channels the spirit of John XXIII — humble, emotionally accessible, and keen on aggiornamento (bringing the Church up to date). As a son of Vatican II and Pope Francis’ close ally, “John” would signal a warm, global, reformist path.
3. Péter Erdő
$20,391 Vol. — 7%
- Radicalism: Low
- Theological direction: Conservative, doctrinal, restrained public profile
- Likely Papal Name: Benedict XVII
- Why? Erdő would likely follow in the theological and liturgical footsteps of Benedict XVI. His quiet, precise intellectualism fits the “Benedict” tradition: a thinker-pastor upholding orthodoxy without cultural confrontation.
4. Peter Turkson
$25,433 Vol. — 6%
- Radicalism: Moderate
- Theological direction: Progressive on social issues, orthodox on doctrine
- Likely Papal Name: Paul VII
- Why? Paul VI was the first truly global pope and a reformer during turbulent times. Turkson, with his focus on justice, peace, and ecology, would echo that legacy — blending tradition with global economic concern, particularly for the Global South.
5. Matteo Zuppi
$25,953 Vol. — 4%
- Radicalism: High (progressive end)
- Theological direction: Deeply pastoral, peace-activist, inclusive on moral issues
- Likely Papal Name: Francis II
- Why? Zuppi is often described as the ideological and spiritual heir to Francis. Choosing “Francis II” would be a bold affirmation of radical mercy, social inclusion, and synodal Church reform.
6. Robert Sarah
$25,271 Vol. — 4%
- Radicalism: High (conservative end)
- Theological direction: Traditionalist, anti-modernist, critical of liturgical and moral liberalization
- Likely Papal Name: Leo XIV
- Why? Sarah channels the spirit of Leo XIII — clear moral teaching, cultural defense of the faith, and a deep focus on the eternal over the contemporary. “Leo” would signal a strong return to Roman tradition.
