Keynes’ Three Errors

by Davi Navarro Carneiro

Since I began studying the ideas of liberty, I have always envisioned writing a book that would condense these ideas for a general audience. Don’t get me wrong, I love the complex works of Mises, Hayek, and Rothbard. But I must admit that most people would not be able to read them for long, nor would they have the patience to understand them. After all, most people have no basic understanding of economics, nor do they have the time to study it in depth.

With that in mind, I decided to write a book for this audience. A concise book, written in clear and accessible language, that teaches complex economic concepts from the perspective of the Austrian School. This idea is not new—many people have done it before—so I sought a different approach.

The most defended economist in any economics course, at least in Brazil, is Keynes. His interventionist ideas are taught and repeated cyclically in universities across the country. Brazil, like many other nations, has a long history of crises caused by Keynesian policies. During the 1980s and 1990s, the country faced hyperinflation. Between 1970 and 1994 alone, Brazil adopted six different official currencies in an attempt to escape inflation. In 2008, while then-president Lula da Silva boasted that the nation would remain unaffected by the global financial crisis, the government expanded the monetary base, which ultimately led to the 2013–2016 economic crisis—the most severe in Brazil’s history. And it did not end there: the country continues its Keynesian experiment, with Keynes’s ideas still being replicated in universities and taught to future economists.

I saw in this an opportunity to write a book that presents his main ideas and explains why they fail. Hunter Lewis did this brilliantly in his book Where Keynes Went Wrong, an excellent work. However, his book is a comprehensive refutation of many of Keynes’s ideas—a dense, complete text perfect for those already studying economics. But that is not my target audience.

That’s how the idea for Keynes’ Three Errors was born. It’s a book in which I explain three major ideas of the British economist and why, according to the Austrian School, they are incorrect. In doing so, I take the opportunity to teach basic economic concepts to readers who have never encountered the subject. It’s a short book, written in simple language, but—if I may say so—rich in content.

I open the book with the chapter “Who Was John Maynard Keynes?” There, I summarize the economist’s story—a brief biography focusing on his professional life and intellectual thought, including his famous disagreements with Friedrich Hayek. It is important to clarify that Keynes’ Three Errors is purely a critique of Keynesian thought; at no point do I criticize Keynes as a person.

The first error lies in Keynes’s view of interest rates. He claimed they tend to “remain too high” and that excessive saving hinders prosperity. This, he believed, explained why humanity endured centuries of poverty. I counter this by showing how interest rates emerge naturally from the interaction of savings and investment—governed by supply and demand—and how mismanaging them distorts the entire economy, as the Austrian theory of business cycles makes clear.

The second error concerns taxation and inflation. Keynes acknowledged that his policies produced inflation but insisted that the State could counteract it by raising taxes and creating surpluses. This, he argued, would cool the economy and promote fairness. Yet this logic collapses under its own weight: higher taxes reduce productivity and investment, harming the very workers Keynes sought to protect.

Finally, Keynes’s third and perhaps most consequential error is his belief that markets cannot self-correct. He saw unemployment and deflation as proof that laissez-faire failed. In truth, markets do adjust—through changes in prices, wages, and productivity—if allowed to operate freely. State intervention merely delays recovery and deepens cycles of crisis.

Keynes’ Three Errors is, above all, a defense of economic freedom. It introduces readers to the elegance of the Austrian School and shows that prosperity doesn’t arise from government planning, but from the voluntary interactions of individuals.

The foreword, written by my friend and fellow liberty advocate Rafael Mendonça, makes the project even more special. Published at LibertyCon Brazil 2024, this book fulfills a personal dream: to make sound economics accessible to everyone, in English, Portuguese, and Spanish alike.I hope you enjoy the book. It is available in English, Portuguese, and Spanish.

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