Last Sunday, Bolivia held an election that was unusual in many respects.
Most polling firms predicted a fairly consistent outcome: Samuel Doria Medina, businessman and vice president of the Socialist International, would face off in a potential run-off against center-right former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga. Andrónico Rodríguez, Evo Morales’ unacknowledged political heir and the leading figure of Bolivia’s left, seemed poised to deliver a surprise upset by channeling the large share of undecided votes.
The results, however, surprised everyone. Most Bolivians ended up backing Rodrigo Paz Pereira, a senator from the center-left party Comunidad Ciudadana and former mayor of Tarija. According to official data from the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, with 95% of ballots processed by the Preliminary Electoral Results System (SIREPRE), Paz secured 32.14% of the vote. Quiroga followed closely with 26.81%, while Doria Medina failed to surpass 20% and struggled to beat the null vote (19.29%). As for the left-wing parties, known collectively as the “popular bloc,” their results were: Rodríguez with 8.22% and Del Castillo (candidate for the Movement Toward Socialism, MAS) with 3.16%, a great fall considering the previous election, where Morales’ party obtained more than 50% of the votes in four consecutive national elections.
Fall of the Left and other implications
In this way, the left—now fragmented into various factions—emerged as the clear loser of the election. The reasons are relatively easy to identify: Bolivia is facing a severe economic crisis, with inflation exceeding 15% and GDP growth barely reaching 0.7% in 2024. This translated into a protest vote against MAS candidate Eduardo del Castillo, who had to step in after President Luis Arce Catacora abandoned any re-election bid due to poor electoral prospects. MAS came within less than one percentage point of losing its legal status as a political party, since electoral law mandates that parties failing to reach 3% of the vote face deregistration.
Meanwhile, Andrónico Rodríguez, once Morales’ protégé, navigated the campaign with caution by avoiding public statements, press conferences, and limiting his participation in debates and forums. However, this strategy failed to translate into more votes, and his support remained within the margins predicted by pollsters.
Rodrigo Paz, on the other hand, capitalized on the election with a low-profile, non-media-centric approach. His campaign focused on “popular capitalism” and appealed to Bolivia’s grassroots. He managed to attract voters from across the political spectrum. His references to “national-popular” ideals resonated with former MAS supporters who were skeptical of Rodríguez and Del Castillo. At the same time, his proposals to shut down loss-making state enterprises and reduce the fiscal deficit earned him support from the right.
Another key factor was the role of Edman Lara, Paz’s running mate. Unlike Juan Pablo Velasco, Quiroga’s VP candidate, who presented himself as a young tech-savvy entrepreneur, or José Luis Lupo, Doria Medina’s pick with a background in multilateral economic institutions, Lara offered hope for genuine political renewal. Since his emergence in 2023, after exposing corruption within Bolivia’s police force —one of the country’s most distrusted institutions—his political profile has steadily grown, especially on social media. With no political past or ties to economic elites, and a background rooted in anti-corruption activism, Lara helped Paz secure crucial votes in the presidential race.
The Runoff: Paz vs. Quiroga
Although Paz is seen as the big winner of the August 17 election, one major challenge remains: he must face right-wing candidate Jorge Tuto Quiroga in a historic run-off scheduled for October 19. This woll the first since Bolivia’s return to democracy—
While the race remains open, Doria Medina’s endorsement of Paz could tip the balance in his favor, especially considering that Medina initially had the backing of elected governor of Santa Cruz, Luis Fernando Camacho, a key figure in Morales’ 2019 ousting,currently imprisoned in Chonchocoro since December 2022.
Electoral Integrity and Public Responsibility
The surprises didn’t end with the results, they extended to election day itself. Bolivia had recently experienced turbulent elections, such as those in 2019, which were annulled after proven manipulation by MAS, and the 2020 elections, which, despite lacking confirmed fraud, sparked protests over the return of the ruling party. In contrast, this election proceeded smoothly, without incidents compromising electoral integrity or citizen participation.
Perhaps the most notable aspect was the high percentage of null votes, part of Morales’ electoral strategy after being excluded from the ballot under current electoral regulations. Aside from that, voters turned out as expected, and results were delivered transparently and promptly—a positive sign for Bolivia’s embattled electoral system.
Some Implications of the MAS’ Defeat
The final surprise came in the way MAS was defeated at the polls—something that hadn’t happened since 2016, when Morales lost a constitutional referendum that would have allowed him a fourth term (his third re-election) in a country that only permits two terms, whether consecutive or not. Morales later disregarded the referendum results and ran in the 2019 elections. This latest defeat could have been compounded by the loss of MAS’s legal status, had it failed to reach 3% of the vote. However, with 5% of ballots still to be counted, it appears MAS will retain its status—by a razor-thin margin of less than 1%.
This once again demonstrates that it is possible to stand up to authoritarian governments when civil society organizes itself, even in contexts of electoral uncertainty.
Although voters did not necessarily choose candidates from the ideological opposite of Morales or Arce, the transition toward moderate pluralism within the Legislative Assembly is no small victory. Democratic debate and negotiation will now replace the imposition of a strongman.
MAS is not dead, but this defeat leaves it in a very weak position. Its future will be decided in next year’s subnational elections, though the outlook is far from promising for this sector of the left. Unless the incoming government makes serious mistakes that provoke popular unrest beyond tolerable limits, a return of MAS in the near future seems unlikely.
What Comes Next for Bolivia?
The defeat of the far left—represented by parties such as the Movement Toward Socialism (Eduardo del Castillo) and Popular Alliance (Andrónico Rodríguez)—is, in itself, a reason to celebrate for defenders of liberty. Through the ballot box, voters managed to electorally defeat a party that, for twenty years, imposed a socialist-style economy and an authoritarian political model, aligned internationally with Castro’s Cuba and the Venezuela of Chávez and Maduro. However, this is not, in and of itself, an absolute victory—far from it.
The profiles of Paz and Quiroga raise more questions than answers. For instance, Paz’s government platform lacks concrete proposals to address the current economic crisis, which suggests a potentially dangerous ideological void. Quiroga, on the other hand, has been clearer in presenting his plan to reduce the fiscal deficit. Yet uncertainty remains as to whether his measures will be radical enough to confront the severity of the crisis—one that does not lend itself to half-measures. In this context, gradualism is the main enemy of any government program.
Conclusion
In short, August 17 marked the beginning of a new political chapter, and many questions remain unanswered—some of which will only be resolved once the run-off election is held. Others, however, will only be answered when the new government takes office and reveals its true intentions—whether to continue the exhausted socialist model of MAS or to pivot toward a freer economy.
We should not allow the electoral surprise to distract us from what truly matters: Bolivia still remains a depressed economy and the authoritarian inheritance will continue to perverse the upcoming government, unless a serious, structural reform takes place. As Jefferson taught us a couple of centuries ago, the price of freedom is eternal vigilance.This piece solely expresses the opinion of the author and not necessarily the magazine as a whole.
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